Agriculture Scenario in India and Future outlook
El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns that affect the weather globally. El Niño refers to warmer ocean temperatures in the central-east equatorial Pacific, leading to various impacts like increased flooding and changes in marine life. On the other hand, La Niña involves cooler ocean temperatures in the same region, leading to effects like droughts and heavy rains in different parts of the world.
India, along with asian countries faces low and scattered monsoon in El Niño and abundant to heavy rainfall in La Niña.
Historical Impact of El-Niño: Past Challenges and Resilience
In the past, El-Niño has caused difficulties for farming in India. It led to problems like less rain, affecting crops like rice and sugarcane.
Historical data shows that during El-Niño events, agricultural production in India faced setbacks.
Crops like rice and sugarcane were particularly impacted by El-Niño.
Current Scenario: Facing Water Scarcity and Crop Challenges
Currently Western, Central, and Southern regions in India are experiencing water scarcity which is affecting crops such as sugarcane and off-season plantations. Farmers are working hard to adapt to these conditions and find ways to sustain their crops. Water reservoir levels in many regions are lower than previous year as well as long term average.
Water scarcity is significantly impacting regions like Northen, Eastern, and Southern India. However, Central region water reserves are at 10 year average while Western India has water availability at levels better than 10 year average but lower than last year. Sowing in Sugarcane, vegetables and pulses are facing challenges due to the scarcity of water.
Future outlook: Anticipating Better Monsoon and Agricultural Growth
According to initial forecasts by Sky met & IMD, India is likely to witness La Niña phenomenon i.e. return of normal monsoon 2024. The expectation of better rainfall brings optimism for increased agricultural production & fertilizer usage. This positive outlook signals a potential resurgence in agricultural productivity.
Agriculture theme can be played in stock markets through sub segments like Seeds, fertilizers, Agrochemicals, Agri equipment’s manufactures & rural consumer products producers.
Chart data source:
India Meteorological Department Ministry Of Earth Sciences Government Of India
Reserve Bank of India
Skymet Weather